Business Blog: Hoover’s Business Insight Zone

The launch of Apple’s iPod Touch leads me to revisit what I’ve said before about e-books. A couple of weeks ago I hypothesized that e-books will not become popular via stand-alone e-book readers, but via superior technological devices like the iPhone.

I still think I’m right about that, primarily because I don’t envision wide consumer adoption of multi-hundred-dollar devices for the single function of reading e-books. If the device delivers e-books with sweet, easy-to-read formatting AND it plays movies AND it lets you surf the Web AND it lets you do other cool things (make phone calls, shoot video, track your location via GPS, communicate with extra-terrestrials, etc. etc.), then yes. Otherwise, no.

Not that my view on this is stopping Amazon and Google from wading into the e-book fray, as explained in this TechCrunch item:

Amazon & Google To Enter eBook Business

. . . The [Amazon] Kindle will be a device to read books - black and white screen, internet connectivity via EVDO and a keyboard to take notes and surf the web. The device, which will cost $400-$500, will interact with an ebook service run by Amazon.

The fact that the device can access books without being separately connected to a computer will be a big selling point over Sony Reader, which sells for $300. The Kindle will also be able to surf the web and users will also be able to read newspapers, magazines, etc. . . .

Google isn’t getting into the device business. Instead, they will start charging users to view some full text books that they’ve indexed, although this is separate from the Google Book Search Library Project. No word on whether Google is sharing revenue with publishers.

This Brad Stone article from the New York Times offers valuable historical context on the long-unsolved challenges of the e-book market:

Envisioning the Next Chapter for Electronic Books

. . . Nevertheless, many publishing executives see Amazon’s entrance into the e-book world as a major test for the long-held notion that books and newspapers may one day be consumed on a digital device.

“This is not your grandfather’s e-book,” said one publishing executive who did not want to be named because Amazon makes its partners sign nondisclosure agreements. “If these guys can’t make it work, I see no hope.”

Meanwhile, Kevin Tofel — who knows from mobile devices — isn’t biting on the Kindle because of previous sour experiences with Amazon and e-books. In my view, experiences of his type are almost inevitable given the DRM locks, or even just the formatting incompatibilities, that accompany the chaotic world of e-books so far. Please understand, I’m not faulting Kevin for naivete by any means — I’m faulting an e-publishing industry that has yet to get its act together.

My long-term view on this is like it is on a lot of other things in the business world: contra publishing executive Brad Stone quoted, the situation is far from hopeless. But the solution won’t come from the same kind of thinking that got us here in the first place. So far, I’m seeing a lot of that thinking, and not much real innovation, in the latest round of blather around e-books. Someday, somebody’s gonna make a lot of money off of e-books . . . but not like this.