Business Insight Zone

That’s the question on my mind after reading this USA Today article:

Autoworkers cling to middle class

The gist: new UAW contracts with GM and Chrysler (negotiations with Ford are pending) have won some job security for union members at the struggling auto makers. Over the years, though, there have been many concessions that have eroded the formerly secure middle-class standing of auto workers. So while many union workers still make $29 per hour — what many Americans would call an enviable wage for manual work that requires no college education — their futures seem far from certain.

One of the union members quoted in the article says that he tells his children to pursue their education so that they can have better security in their careers, and of course his advice is sound. My guess is that, within a generation or two, unionized factory labor of the type championed by the UAW will become even less influential than it now is — meaning it will have fallen even farther from the heyday of American unions in the middle decades of the 20th century. There’s still some resentment of Big Labor to be found, but even less understanding of what the labor movement accomplished in terms of winning fair wages and safe working conditions for American workers.

The post-WW2 U.S. economy was as strong as any ever seen up to that time, and the big unions were able to reap great rewards for their members. But it’s possible that the confluence of circumstances then was only a historical accident — a blip on the radar that is now fading. Whether or not unionized labor more broadly, including service-focused unions like SEIU, should have more influence, it seems clear that the big manufacturing industries that reigned through the 20th century won’t wield the same influence in decades to come.

Whatever the case, during that century there were generations of unionized workers who became accustomed to high wages and well-funded retirement after 30 years. Those pensions are long gone, and the supremacy of GM and Ford has been toppled by Toyota and all the other overseas car makers. But the memories of the middle-class lifestyle carry on, whether or not American manufacturing industries can sustain that lifestyle going forward. It seems certain that, even with strong union contracts in place, UAW members can now look forward to a working life like most of America’s broad consumer class: paycheck to paycheck.