Business Insight Zone

Google’s $700 share price has understandably gotten lots of press in the past couple of days, as has Dell’s accounting restatement. But here’s a thought as I reflect on many years of daily reading of the business press:

Reports of Google’s invulnerability have been greatly exaggerated.

From what I can tell — based on news accounts, feature stories, financial reporting, and Google’s track record for hiring some of my smartest friends — the company is excellent. It seems to be maintaining that excellence as it expands. It won’t surprise me if its share price passes $1,000 a year from now. Bully for Google.

But I remember, not so long ago, when Dell got the same kind of press. Dell is crazy-good at what they do. Dell is awesome. Dell’s business model can’t be beat. Dell kicks butt in 17 languages. Et cetera. But now their PC business is in disarray.

I know this is a simple — even simplistic — historical perspective, but it bears repeating:

• Once upon a time, Ford was unbeatable . . . until GM beat it.
• GM was unbeatable . . . until Toyota beat it.
• A&P was unbeatable . . . until it wasn’t.
• IBM was unbeatable . . . until PCs upset the apple cart, at which point IBM was really beatable . . . until Lou Gerstner turned it around.
• Dell was unbeatable . . . until H-P beat it.

Any of us could proliferate examples, but the point is obvious. When a company is on top, when it has achieved the business-as-usual superiority that Google enjoys today, it’s hard to imagine what will upset the status quo. But something always does. Rome’s dominance of the Western world seemed unshakeable, until . . . Britannia ruled the waves, until . . .

Something will put the fear of Armageddon into Google. Somewhere, someone is imagining a future status quo in which Google’s dominance is as long-gone as A&P’s is today. (That someone, by the way, is likely to end up very rich.)

The rest of us just don’t see it yet.

Category: Technology, The language of business