Business Insight Zone

My wife jokes that at my “advanced” age of 35 I’m becoming more of a curmudgeon. I carry on the joke by starting more sentences with “Back in my day . . .” in the voice of Abraham Simpson.

But I don’t want to be a curmudgeon — at least not a consistent one — when I’m reviewing trends in the marketplace. Why? Becuase (1) negativity tends to warp the brain in bad directions, and (2) it’s too easy to end up writing a piece in the genre of “The Curmudgeon Speaks!” . . . like this one from PCMag’s Lance Ulanoff:

MySpace, Second Life, and Twitter Are Doomed

The title gives you the idea of the column. Setting aside Ulanoff’s comments on MySpace (which is overhyped but still mega-popular) and Second Life (which is overhyped and . . . well, no, just overhyped), let’s read what he has to say about Twitter at the end of his piece.

Twitter’s demise will certainly come before we hit 2011. It’s the perfect example of Internet flash paper, and I suspect it will shine as brightly and briefly as this favorite magician’s gimmick. I’m singling out the site, which revolves entirely around people’s random notes about what they’re doing and thinking at any given moment, because of a recent John C. Dvorak column. He somewhat insanely says that these random postings should be saved for posterity. Dvorak is too smart to believe this, so I’ll assume his entire column was tongue-in-cheek. No one is going to save these random posts about nothing. Twitter is popular now because the Web cognoscenti are using it. This bunch of eggheads prides itself on irony and witticism. They treat the site like some sort of ongoing haiku contest. Well, folks, I have a haiku for you:

Goodbye, bubble, and
So long, overhyped nonsense
Till the next “Big Thing.”

While the snark may add some humor for Ulanoff’s readers, it conveys very little about Twitter — what it is, how it’s used, why it’s popular, and so on.

Contrast that to this thoughtful post from Jeremiah Owyang’s blog.

Web Strategy: What the Web Strategist should know about Twitter

Owyang also knows that Twitter is used by the Web cognoscenti (he is one), but he goes on to explain its utility — and its intended audience — for his readers.

Opportunities: Why Twitter?
A tool embraced by the early adopter, Twitter can benefit from: thought leadership, connection to the influencers, additional message reach, access to mobile communicators, real-time communication, but more importantly, the opportunity to build relationships through conversations. Who it’s good for? Media companies, social media savvy brands, those who may already have a blogging strategy, those with frequent updates. High communication individuals may prefer this tool.

Limitations and Challenges: It’s not for everyone
Twitter is not for everyone, here’s a few considerations: due to a high degree of micro information the user will need to self-parse information. Although there is no formal data, I suspect that the audience use is early adopter social media folks, influencers, and an average age of 30-45. Although Obvious (parent company) has recently received funding the product infrastructure is still doing through growth pains, and error messages are common. Twitter, while still in it’s early stages, the full value has not been realized.

Now, Ulanoff is writing a magazine column, complete with space constraints, while Owyang is writing on his own blog. More to the point, Ulanoff’s comments are tacked onto the end of a piece that’s really a rant about MySpace and Second Life, whereas Owyang’s post is purpose-written about Twitter. But going off of attitude alone, which one of these things is more useful for someone who knows nothing about Twitter? Owyang wins by a mile.

Maybe you don’t need Twitter. Okay. Maybe Ulanoff doesn’t need it. Okay. Maybe Twitter will be dead by 2011 and nothing but a footnote in the history of the Internet. Okay. But Twitter is where many influential netizens hang out and share their thoughts, whether Ulanoff likes it or not — and whether he even cares to understand it or not.

Once upon a time, the early adopters hung out on Usenet and used “car phones.” Once upon a time, early adopters used Compuserve. The fact that these services have gone the way of the world doesn’t mean they lacked utility for their users then.

And the fact that a journo can cop an attitude about the new new thing and compose a rant about it doesn’t mean that the rant will be of use to the audience.

So, please, hold my feet to the fire: let me know if my burgeoning (?) curmudgeonly tendencies get in the way of providing useful analysis.