Business Insight Zone

Here’s a nice post from Eliezer Yudkowsky at Overcoming Bias about why we drastically underestimate how long projects will take to complete — i.e., why we fall victim to the cognitive bias of the “planning fallacy.” If you’ve ever wrestled with project deadlines you’re involved in any aspect whatsoever of business, university, governmental, or non-profit operations, it’s worth some reflection:

So there is a fairly reliable way to fix the planning fallacy, if you’re doing something broadly similar to a reference class of previous projects. Just ask how long similar projects have taken in the past, without considering any of the special properties of this [current] project. Better yet, ask an experienced outsider how long similar projects have taken.

You’ll get back an answer that sounds hideously long, and clearly reflects no understanding of the special reasons why this particular task will take less time. This answer is true. Deal with it.

Give the whole thing a read here.