Business Insight Zone

They do it to drive me crazy.

I love FORTUNE magazine and have been reading it for ages, but this item makes me grind my teeth:

The 10 largest U.S. bankruptcies

To save you from paging through the whole thing, here’s their list, with asset values in billions of dollars:

1. Lehman Brothers — $691  — 2008
2. Washington Mutual — $327.9 — 2008
3. WorldCom — $103.9 — 2002
4. General Motors — $91 — today
5. Enron — $65.5 — 2001
6. Conseco — $61 — 2002
7. Chrysler — $39 — 2009
8. Thornburg Mortgage — $36.5 — 2009
9. PG&E — $36 — 2001
10. Texaco — $34.9 — 1987

(Note that the links for WorldCom and Texaco are to historical records, which are available to Hoover’s subscribers.)

There are two major problems here:

I. Nominal figures. Freshman economics students have it drilled into them that when you compare nominal figures across a range of years, you’re not comparing apples to apples. Yet this list ranks all of these bankruptcies by nominal dollars without a caveat (or, if FORTUNE is using real figures, the article doesn’t say so).

Here’s the same list with everything converted into billions of 1987 dollars:

1. Lehman Brothers — $413.2
2. Washington Mutual — $196.1
3. WorldCom — $73
4. GM — $54.4
5. Enron — $46.8
6. Conseco — $42.9
7. Texaco — $34.9
8. PG&E — $25.7
9. Chrysler — $23.3
10. Thornburg Mortgage — $21.8

(Note that the calculator I used only went through 2008, so I used that year for 2009 bankruptcies.)

Granted, this doesn’t change the order of the top six companies on the list, but (a) innumeracy about real and nominal values is common enough that it ought to be opposed at every turn; and (b) this listing at least compares apples to apples in terms of scale.

II. Financial assets. Banks, mortgage companies, and other financial services companies are in the business of holding assets. I ran a search on our Build a List tool for companies with more than $100 billion in assets, and what do you know? — it was dominated by banks, insurers, and the like for page after page.

In other words, it doesn’t work to suggest that the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy is seven times as big as the General Motors because Lehman held seven times as much in assets. We could compare revenue ($19 billion to $181 billion for fiscal 2007) or employees (28,600 to 266,000) or something else, but grading on assets alone gives us a false picture.

Or am I just missing something? Bankruptcy experts, economists, et al. feel free to weigh in — the floor is open for comments.

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Photo by Ed Yourdon, used under a CC-Share Alike license.

Category: Finance & Real Estate, Media