How worked up should I get over financial headlines?

Today I was joking with my boss that I could give this blog over entirely to:
- Updates about doings at Hoover’s, e.g. new product offerings or celebrating successes of Hooverites;
- Talking about Twitter; and
- Ranting about the state of financial journalism in this country.
I’m kidding. Mostly.
Here’s my teeth-grinder du jour, from Bloomberg:
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Excluding Cars, Planes
Orders for U.S. durable goods, excluding automobiles and aircraft, unexpectedly rose in June, signaling manufacturing may expand in the second half of the year.
Excluding transportation equipment, demand for goods meant to last several years climbed 1.1 percent, the most in four months, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Total orders fell 2.5 percent, the first decrease in three months. . . .
Emphasis on that last sentence because it’s the actual headline. Durable-goods orders fell 2.5% in June, as was pointed out in the very first sentence of the Census Bureau’s summary release that accompanied the data. So the Bloomberg headline might be something akin to one spouse saying to another: “I’ve been over our fixed expenses, honey, and we’re doing fine . . . excluding food.”
Now, the people at Bloomberg are smart, which makes me think two things:
- “We know that automobiles and aircraft have been getting hammered, but is that obscuring trends in the rest of the manufacturing economy? Look, this story tells us! . . . Interesting angle from Bloomberg. My mind is growing!”
- “This story, from the headline on down, overplays recovery and underplays trouble, directly contradicting the tenor of the Census Bureau’s release.”
Now, my question to you: which one of these reactions is more reasonable?
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3 Comments so far
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At last a chance to rain on your parade….:) Durable goods orders x-aircraft is oftentimes a preferable series to look at as it’s not as lumpily volatile. In fact in my own analysis it’s been my preferred metric.
On the other hand…ahem..DG was down -26.8% YoY and DGx was down -22.8%…the 7th month in a row of -20+% for the former and the sixth for the latter. The chart version of that observation is here:
http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/EconCharts/EconH209/DGOrdJul09.jpg
I take your point, Dave, about the X-aircraft numbers . . . but does it usually exclude automobiles as well? And in any event, to second the point you make in your second paragraph, the Bloomberg story tended (I thought) to strain to make the good case for durable goods, when in fact the bulletin is, once again, that the economy is getting less worse, with signs of some stabilization — rather than that the economy is getting better.
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